I think there will be at least a few world records between now and 454

Well, the future will tell

I think someone will definitely have pl8-1 before a 454 probably a 4:55.3xx or 4:55.4xx then 8-4 will have to become more optimized and then maybe someone could get t8ven-2 in a wr and get a very high 4:54.9xx this probably won’t happen for quite a while considering that t8aven-2 has only been done once in practice but pl8-1 already has been done in a run so I see a 4:55.3xx in the near future

Lul_ecks_dee I don’t think 4:53 is possible the tas is close but the last time the tas was Improved was 2010 so I don’t think 4:53 is possible with L+R 4:53 isn’t even a question when considering RTA rules but WR could get close if 4-2 framerule is saved in future runs (I highly doubt it though)

Yeah, with the actual stats I thin 4:53 is definitly not posible by the moment, but 4:54 definitly yes

I wouldn’t say “definitely” yet for a 454 a 455 is still extremely difficult and 2 new framerule saves would need to be implemented 1-2 clip is still extremely hard to get when going for 455 about 10% so I don’t think top level runners want to go for a unrealistic goal at this point not yet at least and since 8-1 and 8-2 are towards the end of the run the chance of getting a run on pace is already very low an doing both pl8-1 and t8ven-2 is very unrealistic in my opinion maybe someday tho

I didn't say 4:53 was possible, or that 4:54 would be the next WR, I just said there's no harm in talking about a thicc time ok um The very successful people aren't very realistic (like look at Elon Musk) ok um I should stop wasting time, it's expensive Also it's like when you're kinda realistic it's kinda boring and you kinda put a fake limit on yourself that's unnecessary. so uh cos time

Has anyone done a Human Theory TAS that is below 4:55? It seems like if that is missing, that we really don't have a solid path to 4:54 at all, if one exists. I'm all for theory, but it seems we'd really need some brand new ideas that are completely new to do it.

I agree if there isn't one then there's no point of the whole conversation

Here’s the human theory tas by blazit

Humans aren’t likely to have such a good 8-4 in a run but pl8-1 has already been done in a run by tavenwebb2002 so I think the best time a human could get for now would be a 4:55.2xx adding pl8-1 and another fast acceleration in 8-4

We’re talking about 4:54 human theory

It doesn't matter whether there's a 4:54 human theory TAS right now or not, we're so far away that it's not at the utmost importance right now. or, what if I made the human theory TAS?

Oh yeah that bounty, That's still up for grabs it seems. Somebody get that 4:54 and use that $50 to buy Willy Wombat on the Sega Saturn

We don't need a "human theory TAS" to know that humans can do 4:54. It's already been done in segments. By one person, no less. That proves, with no room for argument, that 4:54 is possible.

4:54 is extraordinarily unlikely, no doubt. But there is also no doubt that it's possible with what we know, and what has already been done.

The problem is that without a human theory TAS, there's no complete run evidence that it is actually possible. I'd be highly interested in seeing someone put together a human theory TAS that can show a lower time, using the best segments we have. But without that it just seems like wishful thinking.

We’ll just have to wait for that day......

My original estimate for 454 was ~2025. Given that the human SOB is now a 454, I'm gonna say 2022-2023. Not for a long time, but very possible.

Maybe, unless Todd Rogers decides to say that he got a 4:53 and it’s not a TAS

Let’s be real Todd would claim a 4:49 or something like that 🤣