Chances of getting 4:54?
3 years ago

I know the game isn't based off of luck, but let's say (even though these numbers are way inaccurate) 50% of runs got past 1-1 at 4:54 pace, 50% of those runs got past 1-2 at 4:54 pace, 50% of those runs got past 4-1 at 4:54 pace and so on. So at the end of all of that, what is the chance that if someone good at the game started, they'd get a 4:54 run (if the percents were accurate)?

Also, I know it depends on which player it is, but let's say just an average.

ez 1-1: 1/2 1-2: 1/2 4-1: 1/2 4-2: 1/2 8-1: 1/5 8-2: 1/10 8-3: 1/3 8-4: 1/3 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 X 5 X 10 X 3 X 3 = 7200 1/7200 is the probability poger

k1ngk0opa, TrenttheN642 and 4 others like this
England

is pl8-1 really that consistent?

England

idk tho, it might be, you probably know more than me

Minnesota, USA

You could do that math but you'd have to find the actual percentages of getting past each stage , and it's probably different for each level & each player. Those averages would also change over time so you'd need to have a window to draw those samples from.

England

yeah, ik, but is anyone that consistent at pl8-1? i just don't know though

Edited by the author 3 years ago
CyanogenSm64 likes this
Ireland

lekukie might get that consistent at the fast accel when he gets a new controller.

pl8-1 isn't THAT hard for some people, so I think it is that consistent. I think people overestimate the hardness of pl8-1, but it is a very tough trick.

New York, USA

pl8-1 isnt consistent for anyone rn due to the inconsistency of the fast accel at there beginning, its not that hard when you just try a fast accel then if you miss it, oh well just reload the save state. But after doing 1-1 fpg 1-2g 4-1fpg blazit, with very little to no breaks in between, then a perfect fast accel is kindaaaaaaaaaaaaa hard. The trick without the fast accel is pretty consistent to all of the 4:54 contenders.

LDAMAN and Simplistic6502 like this
Oregon, USA

yeah the fast accel is the most inconsistent part of pl8-1. As Miniland has said, its very hard to time and since the inputs are so fast, it's essentially just luck for getting those inputs on the correct frames.

Buffalo, NY, USA

anyone know how to play toadests Christmas/super mr. crabs on nestopia Mac?

Ireland

Ask questions like that in the toadette's christmas adventure/super mr. krabs forums, not here.

LDAMAN and ultra_exists like this

Yeah Sawyer is right, I completely overlooked the fact that after doing all these frame-perfect tricks and stuff the pressure and everything makes it super hard.

SpeedIn likes this
England

yeah, the fpg is basically not much of a problem at all now, but that fast accel just screws over so many runs. Its not that pl8-1 is waaay harder than something like tas 8-2, its just that hitting pl8-1 on top of 1-1 fpg, 1-2 clip, 4-1 fpg, 4-2 clip (tho thats like the most consistent of like all strats as its only 1 frame perfect input), tas 8-2, fpg in 8-3 plus having a good 8-4 is just insane.

Ireland

Blazit is not only 1 frame perfect input. That may be the case to get the clip at all, but to get it fast enough requires a very specific jump into the wall and also a very precise right press and jumps.

@Lululover 8-4 wall jump is the most consistent imo. Not sure though. 2 frame is incredibly easy on normal standards, but I can only imagine how nerve-racking it would be on 454 pace. But I do think that's the most consistent.

England

i didnt think about that @Asgore89 ye 8-4 is prolly most consistent, but it is frame perfect, 2 frame is slower by a third of a second, and that would totally negate the time gained by pl8-1. and @DaTroll18 yeah, but the hardest part besides the frame perfect trick is definitely the pixel perfect (or is it 2, or even 3?) but anyway, the down input into the pipe, and everything else is relatively easy, especially considering there's none of the added pressure of having hit pl8-1.

LDAMAN likes this

I wasn't sure if they are gonna go for 1 frame or 2 frame, now that I know it's 1f that is terribly insane

Ireland

8-4 is incredibly difficult. Not only would you need to hit three frame perfect jumps (one to not bonk on the first pipe, one for the extra frame save setup and one for the walljump) in wj room, you would also need to do 2 fast accels, and hope you dont get a bad pattern. I think people seriously underestimate the difficulty of the 8-4 they are going for. It's especially difficult under huge pressure.

Edited by the author 3 years ago

Yeah, I forgot about the fast accels, they suck so badly.

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Requirements for High-Level Any% Runs

Any% (NTSC) runs below 4:57.000 must now fulfill additional requirements in order to be verified.

  • The run's full session must be included in the submission description.
  • For emulator runs below 4:57.000, some form of input display must be visible for the duration of the run. A hand-cam or input
4 months ago