# The Gold Split Newsletter - Week #26

The Gold Split offers a free, weekly digest of news from the world of speedrunning and beyond.

This **Story of the Week** is all about people's speedrunning-related goals and predictions for 2025 and was featured in this week's issue. The full post includes **more news**, briefly, AGDQ content, as well as this week's top times and a fun fact. Check it out **[HERE](https://goldsplit.substack.com/p/week-26)**.

## ![](https://www.speedrun.com/static/blob/wzxxw3qz.png)

## Story of the Week ✨

2025 has just begun, and while I’m not a huge fan of New Year’s resolutions, I am a fan of trying to predict what might happen. My own 2025 predictions of @Suigi being dethroned in at least one Super Mario 64 category and @Summoningsalt releasing the 8-hour director’s cut of the Subway Surfers world record history documentary are destined to come true anyways, so I reached out to a few folks to get a broader spectrum of goals and what to look forward to in the new year.

And as a bonus, if we’re all still here at the end of 2025, we get to look back, reflect and gauge how well they did at setting these goals and predicting those outcomes.

Three predictions reached me for the Any% category of **[Super Mario Bros](https://www.speedrun.com/smb1)**. The current record of 04:54.631 by @Niftski has been set in September of 2023, but recent streams have shown that a new one might be just around the corner. Going into the final level, that run was tied with the tool-assisted speedrun (TAS). This is possible due to something called the frame rule. In short: outside of the final level, time can only be gained or lost in 21-frame intervals, because that is the rate at which the level completion is checked. Therefore, on some levels, a runner might lose a few frames but can still end up tied with the TAS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Khu9BB2g4Ks

@Niftski themselves predict a 04:54.5xx or even 04:54.4xx by the end of the year, and SMB legend @Kosmic also considers that a safe bet. But content creator @Abyssoft goes a few steps further: their prediction is a complete tie with the TAS in 2025, which would be a 04:54.265. At that point and until new strategies are found, the best any other player could do is to break even.

In **[Super Mario 64](https://www.speedrun.com/sm64)**, the predictions concern new records in the shorter categories. The momentum in 120 Star seems to have slowed and we might not see any progress there in 2025, but content creator @Bismuth does anticipate new best times in 0 Star, 1 Star and 16 Star. Blindfolded speedrunner @Bubzia agrees with the 16 Star prediction, despite or maybe because of the mystique around that record. Currently, @Suigi is working on the 0 Star category, while @Weegee and @Slipperynip are targetting 16 Star.

Speaking of @Bubzia, his personal goal for the new year does involve the 120 Star category. In May of 2022 he became the first person to finish it blindfolded with a time of 11:22:43. And in 2025, he wants to improve that time significantly and end the run in under ten hours. I was curious about what it will take to get there, and this is what he had to say:

> It’s mostly going to be optimizing the longer and harder stars for consistency and speed. Mostly all the 100 coins stars and some of the really tricky ones like Wingcap Red Coins etc. I have improved as a player a ton over the last year with my 16 and 70 star grind, so lots of new optimizations might now be possible that I simply lacked skill before or even simply did not consider during routing and stuff. It will be lots of work, but it can definitely happen. 😄

@Bismuth on the other hand has plans and predictions for **[Donkey Kong 64](https://www.speedrun.com/dk64?h=101-N64&x=7kj153k3-onvv1yrn.jqzz8d2q)**, specifically in the 101% category on Nintendo 64. In the second half of the year, he’ll aim to improve his time by at least 15 minutes to below 05:40:00. Just above on the leaderboard however he forecasts a potential three-way battle for the crown between @Znernicus, @Awhitmore and @Auphonium, with @Znernicus ultimately coming out on top with a time of at least 05:19:xx at the end of the year.

In the world of tool-assisted speedruns, TAS legend @Tompa is modest and simply wants to continue TASing for as long as he’s motivated. His current project is Klonoa 2: Dream Champ Tournament, a platformer for the Game Boy Advance. Future projects are also already on the horizon, and potentially include The Legend of Zelda: Four Swords for the Nintendo DSi, Super Princess Peach on Nintendo DS, and Wario Land: Shake It! on the Wii.

@EBen has been speedrunning ***[Grand Theft Auto: Vice City](https://www.speedrun.com/gtavc?h=Any_No_SSU&x=nxd1rk8q)*** since 2017, but has fallen behind in his favourite category due to other projects and commitments. In 2025, he pledges to improve his time in Any% (No SSU) to avoid being relegated to the 2nd page of the leaderboards and at the very least remain firmly in the top 100. He also predicts more Chinese runners entering the game’s scene and challenging the top times. In 2024, three have already broken into the top 10 and quickly improved.

A very concrete goal comes from Sonic speedrunner and fast-talking scotsman @Argick. He aims to get at least one new top 10 time in a different Sonic game every month. Hopefully we’ll see twelve of them on the scoresheet at the end of the year. It’s a good thing there are 116 different Sonic games on this website to choose from.

@laura and @Dayoman both want to work on their times in **[Spyro the Dragon](https://www.speedrun.com/spyro1?h=120&x=7wkp1gkr)** 120%. While the former’s goal is to reach at least a 1:25:xx before they branch out into other speedgames, Dayoman is locking in and embracing the grind to finish the year with a time below 1:20:00. I’m rooting for both of you!

In **[Super Metroid](https://www.speedrun.com/supermetroid)** Any%, @Kosmic is certain that there will be a new record, and possibly by somebody who has never held it before. In the last ten years, only three people have been at the top: @zoast, @Behemoth87 and @Oatsngoats, the current record holder. Now, at the beginning of 2025, @Drewski_i and @ShinyZeni are equally close to reaching for the crown. It’ll be an exciting leaderboard to follow!

![A screenshot of the Super Metroid Any% leaderboard with Oatsngoats at the top followed by Drewski_i, ShinyZeni, zoast and Behemoth87.](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8d43a9c-3e4a-425f-bc87-a637b2658eb6_449x229.jpeg)

***@***Anorakkis can see the three hour barrier in **[The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess](https://www.speedrun.com/tp?h=Any-wii&x=z275l4k0-kn0zjg78.rqvrd76l)** Any% on the Wii fall in 2025, even if it might take a mighty run to reach it. And with three tool-assisted speedruns for the game in the works and one for The Wind Waker just released, it might be a really good year for 3D Zelda TASing.

Beyond the games, joey, who runs **[therun.gg](https://therun.gg/)**, is working on the website becoming a front page for all of speedrunning. His aim is to turn it into a hub and a place where one goes to watch streams, get the news, find out about new records or personal bests, see upcoming events, participate in races and tournaments and much more. And maybe, just maybe, he’ll pick up a speedrun again after nine years.

And last but certainly not least, @NaomiiiPlays predicts that charity marathons within the speedrunning scene will manage to raise more for a good cause than in previous years. She noticed a downturn in recent years and hopes that this year will mark a positive change. Currently, AGDQ 2025 is on a good trajectory to improve on last year’s donation total.

### What are yours?

Did these inspire you? Do **you** have any goals or predictions for 2025?

It might be fun to gather as many as we can now and then look back at them at the end of they year. For this purpose, I created a **[quick and basic form](https://forms.gle/7NMWGQpH2P6H4mcj6)** to gather your speedrunning-related goals and predictions for 2025.

Feel free to submit as many as you like, you may remain anonymous. We'll put all of them into a vault at the end of January 2025 and open it at the end of the year. Have a good one!

![](https://www.speedrun.com/static/blob/rz251jdz.png)

Thank you for reading! If you're curious about more of this week's news or would even consider subscribing to the newsletter, you'll find the full post over **[HERE](https://goldsplit.substack.com/p/week-26)**.

Finding new stories to cover can be challenging. I encourage you to think about what happened recently in the communities you are a part of. If there are any stories, articles, glitches, events, or other topics I should be taking a look at, go ahead and **[submit them here](https://forms.gle/F1VJ4PG68FTZKqn49)** or in the **[Gold Split Discord](https://discord.gg/SpbFCgsYkU)**! 📨

The Gold Split is a free weekly newsletter focused on speedrunning. This week's main story is all about people's speedrunning-related goals and predictions for 2025.

The Gold Split #26 - Goals & Predictions

Can you link the entire video with no cuts?

sorry for the long wait i didn't vberify it because

Ask in https://www.speedrun.com/celeste/forums or ask in their discord server

do you still think kpop is better than rock i have to know

3

Comment: 3

Comment: Comment: 3

Comment: Comment: Comment: 3


i think this shirt looks kinda fire so im just wondering if i should buy it 

![](/static/blob/rz2vr0dn.jpg)

Speedrunning

Off-topic discussion, unrelated to speedrunning.

Talk

The Site

Sokoban Online

Google Snake

Moto X3M Spooky Land

Sokoban Touch

JellyCar Worlds

Stickman Parkour 3

Multiple Jim Loves Mary Games

The mod team are happy to announce that all slow runs have officially been moved from Category Extensions to the Base Game, meaning if you want to submit a slow speed run, you'll now need to submit to the Base Game, not Category Extensions.

We'd like to give a HUGE thanks to Maximum from the Red Ball Community who helped a ton with the process of moving runs, without him, this process would've been practically impossible .

As well as this change, fast speed has been changed from categories to variables, so instead of mode(fast) you can now select the speed on the leaderboard, same with slow speed.

Slow Runs Moved To Base Game!

kpop is better than rock music

should i buy this

Bots Deletion Thread

Count to 10,000 one at a time but with a twist

Can Speedrun.com Forums Count?

What do I do

What if someone kept bumping their own thread?

Don't Break The Chain

Are autoclickers allowed?

Maximum

LeftSideDown

xo7qoy9l

tofercakes

j5y0ly9k

Wookis

Noice

Akuretaki

z2pkmyd9

keiron01

Oh_my_gourdness

MichaelDNoise

grayson69

THEGAMINGPITCHFORK

VANCANTORUS

6lp4vpzw

Zanum

eqp8wpk5

LordParoah

Hawk_51_

pengu101

Niro69420

SuperGamer64

soirt

OvoGamer530

NoiceGood

chicagomovers

KlopFlopPop

mrnandokk

speedpawn

swirlyskyglow

Super Mario Bros.

Mario Kart 7

Super Mario 64

Red Ball

Red Ball 2

Red Ball 4 Vol.1

Super Meat Boy

Dr. Mario (NES)

Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!

Barney's Hide & Seek Game

Geometry Dash

Solitaire

Minesweeper

Fireboy and Watergirl 1 - The Forest Temple

Multiple Mario Games

ROBLOX: Speed Run 4

12 Labours of Hercules

Piano Tiles

IQ Ball

Happy Wheels

Red Ball 4 Vol.2

Red Ball 4 Vol.3

Red Ball 4 (Mobile)

Kirby: The Unofficial Game

Wii Play

Slalom Canoe 2012

Hurdles 2012

ROBLOX Prison Life

Super Mario Bros. Category Extensions

Google Quick Draw

Perplexus Rookie

Piano Tiles 2

Moto X3M

ROBLOX: Escape Memes Obby!

Soccer 2012

Basketball 2012

Freerice

Dr. Mario: Vitamin Toss

Flappy Bird

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

Shifting Temple

30th Anniversary of PAC-MAN

Roblox: Teamwork Obby

Solitaire (NES)

Bike Race

60 Seconds to Save the Queen

Subway Surfers

Sonic Adventure DX - Category Extensions

Dragster

Snake VS Block

Maze Racer

Shephy

Super Cat Bros.

Super Solitaire

Super Mario Odyssey

Scrabble (PS)

Super Mario Odyssey Category Extensions

It's Full of Sparks

10 Second Run Returns

The 1545

Hoyle Card Games (GBC)

• CONNECTION

Money Movers

Money Movers 2

Money Movers 3

You Can't Do Simple Maths Under Pressure

Getting Over It - Category Extensions

Seterra (Old Version)

Snappy Maps

Multiple Red Ball Games

Movie Puzzle

Super Mario Maker 2

Red Ball Category Extensions

Red and Blue Balls

Bee Movie Game (DS)

Dadish

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Category Extensions

ROBLOX: Break In

ROBLOX: Speed Run 4 Category Extensions

Steven Universe: Attack the Light

Jump Rope Challenge

OvO Category Extensions

Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics

Fireblob

You Broke the Game

Google Minesweeper

Multiple Google Games

Cookie Clicker Category Extensions

Brain for Monster Truck

Google Solitaire

TriPeaks

Minecraft (Classic)

Fireblob Winter

Google Santa Tracker

Black and White

Moto X3M Winter

Emerald and Amber

Slither.io Category Extensions

grnts8

Default Group