What happens now that it's completely confirmed that dream cheated? Just the simulation highlighted in karl jobsts video shows 1 trillion sims of 24 hours of high tier speed runner gameplay in this category.... That's about 40 times the same amount of time that minecraft has been played by the entire world population since it's release(estimated 68 million years, or ~600 billion hours, as of 9/2020).... Yet even if every hour of minecraft was played on 1.16, and played like a speed runner, numbers matching or exceeding that "luck" don't occur.

So are they really giving "benefit of the doubt" that dream just so happened to get luck that should never have occured even if he grinded 1.16 since java version was released?

Or are they just not giving the usual punishment because he's too big? Every other case of speed running cheating I've seen ended with a MINIMUM of the records in the game, if not the site, being stripped. So why is dream still on the leaderboard?

At this point people have served life sentences on less verifiable evidence (dna tests and eye witnesses both have error margins higher than dreams), and he has a very clear established motive since he was griping about the new rng of the category.

So given that people literally lose the rest of their lives with more "doubt" than dreams case currently allows... Why is just the single run unverified?

Or does minecraft just traditionally use a softer method for cheaters. Haven't really seen any specifically minecraft cheaters dealt with before.

Java Edition is historically softer than most on cheaters while Bedrock Edition is harder. It all varies per community. In the case of Java Edition I believe the verdict has been to just remove his one time and allow him to continue submitting with all his other runs remaining verified.

the evidence for the "cheat" is literally statistical analysis. luck is immesurable and despite everything, the real and serious issue here is that the moderators chose to step forward with this information trying to assert their findings were valid because "well, the coin should never come up heads 20 times in a row."

in most runs, it is completely, absolutely provable that someone cheated. splicing often has hard evidence. speed hacking has hard evidence. if dream cheated, he specifically modified only the RNG of the game. in all honesty, the moderators acted TOO quickly. the small count of streams they used does make it genuinely difficult to say. as things are, the longer they had waited, the more compelling their evidence would have been. as things are right now, their evidence - while statistically significant - is still attempting to turn theoretical probability math into such a concrete statement of fact that it can be used to justify sincere action.

as such, striking even the run they chose to strike is ethically dubious, especially considering they made no effort to offer methods for future runners to ensure they are not struck for exceptional levels of luck. probability does not describe what actually happens, it only describes the chance it had to happen in the first place. they asserted the coin should never come up heads 20 times in a row, but that is equally statistically likely to any other possible outcome with a 50/50 coin toss.

(i've looked over their justification of claiming the blaze rods were manipulated to be good, but i don't find it compelling. they spend a lot of time discussing how unbiased they are because they used statistical techniques to evaluate blaze rods' 1-in-1000 p value, but all they're really doing is saying that they believe his luck is impossible due to an extremely high result with bartering which was matched with blaze drops. they're basically saying "this 50/50 shot is meaningful because dream was lucky with both it and this other thing". on their own, blaze rods would just be completely irrelevant.)

Rinoka. It's not a fucking run. It's 24 hours of playtime, and people have ran simulations. Higher now but the one I saw was 1 trillion simulations of his trades and kills. They never got close to his luck. These trades and kills were from a high level speed runner specifically aiming for trades and kills over a 24 hour period. It happened at much higher rates than a normal player would attempt, and wasn't even a playstyle until the last update, but for the sake of math we'll say every minecraft player plays like that.

68 million years of playtime. 600 billion hours rounded up. Simulations account for 24 trillion. Literally 40 times the ENTIRE ESTIMATED PLAYTIME ON MINECRAFT SINCE RELEASE. Is not enough time to even get close to the "luck" experienced over that 24 hour period that 'just so happened' to occur on the two most important variables for a speed runner.

He cheated. This is not a suggestion, or a possibility anymore. Dream had his chance to defend it, he failed. There is no reasonable reason to even consider that he was playing legitimately.

And getting an average 30% higher drop rates than normal over a 24 hour period is pretty damn weird. Just not as weird as averaging a 300% increase on the other item.

If you choose to believe that a man, impatient to finish up his 1.16 runs, and aggravated about his rng, just happened to get this 24 hour occurrence, which should not have occured even if the entire community attempted it for another 400 years, then that's on you. However don't expect every person who values reality to just ignore indisputable facts.

[QUOTE=Rinoka]in most runs, it is completely, absolutely provable that someone cheated.[/QUOTE] I can tell you haven't had much experience as a moderator

[QUOTE=Rinoka]they asserted the coin should never come up heads 20 times in a row, but that is equally statistically likely to any other possible outcome with a 50/50 coin toss.[/QUOTE] I can also tell you aren't very well versed in statistics