100/2/2/2/2/2/2/22,62443443891/22,62443443891/22,62443443891/22,62443443891 = 5,963608150024494e-6 = 0,00005963608150024494 100/0,00005963608150024494 = 16.768.372,01310574 1 in 16,768 milion. If every person in the Netherlands would play, statistically 1 person would get this perfect trade.

Edit: This assuming the pearls drop in 5. I still have some work to do.

Edit: Got my first calc. wrong. It should be: 100/2/2/2/2/2/2/45,87155963302752/45,87155963302752/45,87155963302752/33,333/33,333/33,333 = 4,370853999308728e-10% = 0,000000004370853999308728% = 228.788.241.418,7605

1 in 228,788 BILLION. Every person in the world would need to play 30 games to have ONE PERSON statistically get the perfect drops.

how long is mincearft?

what does that mean, if ur asking the world record, it's currently just above 14 minutes

im pretty sure the fastest time minecraft was beaten in was 1:45.500

well thats for set seed, i was assuming since he seemed pretty new to the game that he mean random seed

understandable have a nice day

im from virginia too btw

According to the wiki, ender pearl trade rates with piglins are now 10/459 or ~2.18%, roughly half of what they used to be (20/423 or ~4.73%).

"Perfect" drops are hard to define because end portals already spawn with a chance that some eyes of ender are already filled in, but let's assume you will craft all 12. Let's also assume you are lucky and get the maximum number of 4 ender pearls (from equally likely 2-4) for all your trades.

P(6 blaze rods) = (1/2)^6 = 1/64

P(12 pearls from 3 trades) = (10/459 * 1/3)^3 = 1000/2610969633

P(joint) = 1/64 * 1000/2610969633 = 125/20887757064 or ~5.99E-9

This is a ~1 in 167 million chance (given that we are looking to craft all 12 eyes of ender).

Let me know if I did anything wrong.

@ColaEuphoria what did we (bc i also did maths above) different?

@Karl_Maks Where do you get the number 45,87155963302752 from?

@ColaEuphoria 100/4,73

@Karl_Maks You should always do probability math with numbers between 0 and 1 and never with percentages. Only multiply by 100 at the end to express it as a percentage. 4.73% should be 0.0473 when doing math. It's also easier to use exponents and fractions instead of many divisions. For example, 100/2/2/2/2/2/2 = 100*(1/2)^6.

Also, I used 2.18% (0.0218) because the ender pearl drop rate was recently changed. 4.73% (0.0473) should make a number more common than ~1 in 167 million.

If you use 4.73% then your equation should be 100/2/2/2/2/2/2/3/3/3*0.0473*0.0473*0.0473 = 6.12E-6%, but is much easier to write as [(1/2)^6 * (1/3 * 0.0473)^3] * 100%. As you can see, 1/2, 1/3, and 0.0473 are all numbers between 0 and 1.

@ColaEuphoria Ah, now i understand, thanks!