Probability to get 15+ pts: 1 in 7 attempts Probability to get 16+ pts: 1 in 29 attempts Probability to get 17+ pts: 1 in 249 attempts Probability to get 18+ pts: 1 in 3836 attempts Probability to get 19+ pts: 1 in 112150 attempts Probability to get 20+ pts: 1 in 7962624 attempts

If you go for 15 points (Archive, File) you can manipulate last stage on 16 pace answering wrong, so the chance of a 15 in that case is a bit higher, 1 in 5 or 6 attempts