Got a very early rogue at 90% (almost the first one you can find in this route) and saved a lot of time by unlocking the Quincey waygate before looting the lumber mill instead of walking all the way to him from the keely waygate after the bear fight. (thanks Slinky for showing me that one) I think 14:30 might be possible but there is quite a bit of luck needed and its certainly not possible without a 90% rogue blood.