wondering is people think that mario bros speedrunning is more luck based or skill based.

imo it's 100% skill based. the only rng is the hammer bro patterns and bowser patterns, but those are framerule dependent

both

It’s not luck based because all RNG patterns can be predicted based on what frame-rule you’re on.

it's only really luck-based in that most of the hard tricks you see in top times are so hard that the humanity of the runner becomes the luck factor. aside from that, there's basically no rng once you start getting times under 5 minutes.

RNG is fully dependent on framerules (and frames for bowser) so the only main RNG is sometimes bowser screws you over

and BBG too, which is why it's called cointoss. 50-50 chance of getting it bc hit detection only occurs every other frame

Depends what you mean by "luck" - some posters have indicated that because an input is exactly "x", "y" then "z" that means it's skill, which is absolutely true.

but

Getting all your successes on those tricks to line up in the same run is effectively luck also.

If your success rate for 1-1 fpg is 20%, 1-2g is 20%, 4-1 fpg is 30%, and blazit is 40%, the odds of getting only those four skill-based tricks to happen in the same run is 0.48%, or about 1 in 200 runs.

If your success rate on ALL the tricks (1-1fpg, 1-2g, 4-1fpg, 8-2 TAS rule, 8-3fpg, 8-4) is 10% (which means you're skilled enough to do them) - your success rate for a full run would be 0.1^6, which is 0.0001% - or 1 in 1,000,000 runs, which is more runs than any runner would do in several lifetimes. However, TECHNICALLY you could get this on the first attempt with this skill level.

Two runners of equal skill level might take WAAAAY longer to get a certain time, because their tricks never lined up in the same run. Think of Kosmic when he got his WR on the 8th ever attempt doing 1-2g in runs (I'm certainly misremembering details), but that was lucky in the sense that all the tricks "worked" in the same run - even though he's obviously unbelievably talented.

One other non-mentioned aspect of luck is bowser's hammers. You CAN know what framerule you're on on any other level, but in 8-4 you're effectively randomized, or at best, on one of a few frames, and you won't know which one it is - meaning you won't know what hammers bowser will throw (and therefore when exactly to jump). Sometimes bowser jumps, which is a freeby, sometimes it's an easy pattern, and sometimes it's a very difficult pattern.

So - even the "skill" parts of mario have aspects of luck in the stringing together - if you think of it that way.

if "luck" means "game RNG", the hammer bros pattern and i think the 8-2 BBG also something of luck, and you can avoid the luck of the 1º one i you know in which framerule you are going to get to the level the game is skill without any thougths, maybe the rng luck of the WR is 50% , unlike others like minecraft rs