I would like to do a theory craft on a perfect 48-track 150cc items run. I need 2 things to do this: desired items for all used item boxes, and skip success rate. I have done a theory craft before, but it was a small one.
The theory craft in question was the best kart setup for handling. It was Baby Peach, Pipe Frame, Slim Wheels, and Super Glider. It's not a bad setup if you want to try it.
-EeveeBest11, also known as EB1
In this theory craft, I am trying to craft the perfect odds for a 48-track 150cc items run. The inspiration was from a video someone else made on Mario Kart 64 perfect odds. If the stars aligned for a good speedrunner in one run, what are the odds? That is this theory craft. Yet I don't know the items you want or skip success rate. That is where I need this community to help. However, it does need to be humanly possible.
-EeveeBest11, also known as EB1
Bayesic actually made a video going over this question for 200cc () using data from 20 top-level runs (not just PBs; you can find the dataset here https://skilloz.ca/48tracksitems-wr1/), and, quoting his conclusions, the chances of a perfect 48 tracks run is 1 in 216,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Alternatively, if all 8 billion people on earth did attempts 24/7 at a WR level, it would take, on average, 120 quadrillion years to get a perfect run. The probability is similar for 150cc, although probably even lower because each race takes longer, which leaves more time for blue shells and lightning to happen.
If you're trying to find a theoretical time, then just look at the corresponding no items WR. Most NI WRs are very optimized. There's nothing that a human player can do to influence RNG in their favor in this game, and playing with good item management to protect you as best as possible from reds/blues is pretty trivial once you learn to hold coins to get protection.
Thank you very much! I didn't know that the video even existed, I just came up with the idea on my own. I will look at the video and dataset, mostly because I just love statistics. If I were to assume, you would want the same items in 150cc as 200cc, I just can't wait to analyze this!
-EeveeBest11, also known as EB1
