Item Box Sniping Guide (150cc)

At the start of most races, the human player will hit an item box in first place, and the fastest CPU will hit an item box just afterwards. This scenario leads to a ~40% chance of being unavoidably hit by a red shell. However, this possibility can often be countered by taking the box that the fastest CPU's line usually goes through, eliminating the chance of a red shell. For tracks where this is reliable, I will list the item box you should hit. “-“ means I don't know of a consistent strategy for the track.

Tracks with * have additional notes after the main section. The information is formatted as code just so each line isn't spaced inordinately far apart.

Thanks to LiaraLili for helping with the original research!

NITRO TRACKS

MKS: First track of any base game run, get a 2nd place box
WP:  Bad startup for 2nd place box
SSC: 2nd from right
TR:  2nd from left (can vary)

MC:  2nd from left (can vary)
TH:  - (can angle right off the boost ramp to get two boxes to be safe)
*TM: Right path, left box
SGF: Left box

SA:  4th from left
*DS: 3rd from left
ED:  Left box
MW:  2nd from right

CC:  - (boxes on the right are most likely; just do the superbounce)
BDD: Right box
BC:  Middle and 2nd from left (hit both)
RR:  Rightmost or 2nd from right (50/50)

RETRO TRACKS

*rMMM: Left box
*rMC:  -
rCCB:  Right box
rTT:   First two boxes

rDDD: 2nd from right
rDP3: Two boxes first set
rRRy: Left box (can vary)
rDKJ: Rightmost or 2nd from right (can vary)

rWS: Left box
rSL: 2nd from right (can vary)
rMP: Right box
rYV: 3rd from left (can vary)

rTTC: First two boxes (skipping the one on the clock hand is risky, but sometimes the pendulums can break reds thrown at you)
rPPS: First two boxes
rGV:  2nd from right or middle (50/50, can watch CPU to try to predict)
rRR:  3rd from right

BONUS TRACKS

dYC:  Right box
dEA:  - (completely random)
dDD:  Middle box (double item)
*dMC: -

*dWGM: Both middle and 2nd from right
dRR:   Right box
*dIIO: Green (left) track, middle box
dHC:   Left box

*dBP: First two boxes
dCL:  Left box
dWW:  - (very random)
dAC:  Middle and 2nd from left (hit both)

dNBC: Right or 2nd from right (50/50, far right is the faster line)
dRiR: 2nd from right
dSBS: Bad startup boost for 2nd place box (safe)
dBB:  Two leftmost boxes (hit both)

Additional Notes

TM: the CPU has a roughly 50/50 chance of going left or right at the start, so this isn't a guarantee.

DS: with the increased box respawn rate from version 2.1 onwards, the CPU is usually so slow the box has respawned by the time they get to it :(

rMMM: sometimes the fastest CPU zooms and passes you before the first set. In this case, aim for the 2nd box from the left to get a 2nd place box

rMC: like DS but worse. No matter what you hit, the box will always respawn before the CPU gets to it

dMC: box will respawn

dWGM: any of the middle three boxes seem about equally likely, and unfortunately you can only hit two

dIIO: same deal as TM - the CPU seems about 50/50 to take either path, so this isn't very consistent

dBP: moving pairs of item boxes are unlinked, so if you hit both you'll get two items

I hope this helps items feel a tiny bit more consistent!

—Pianist15

9/2/23 update: reformatted to comply with the site update; condensed all relevant 150cc information to here. I'm planning to add DLC tracks eventually, although it will probably be a while.